So how will you use this idea as a part of your project?

• You will first need to choose a state that you will be making a prediction for.
• You must write a paragraph as to why you chose your state. I expect that you choose your state based on a reason that pertains to another subject as well as your own feelings. ex: I chose Alaska because Mr. Kelly talked of its importance with oil and the environment and this is important to me, or I chose Virginia because Mr. Ritter spoke of its importance as a swing state and I am from there and know what issues affect the voters there.
• You will then need to go to one of the links provided on this blog and do some research on your state.
• You will create two tables on excel that shows the percentages (one for each candidate) using only one of the poll types (most states of data that comes from a variety of polls, choose the one with the most data).
• Your table will have a title, the date of the first poll entry, cite the website and poll used, and will use days as your x label and percent as your y label.
• Since the information is given by date, the x values for your entries will look like this: The first entry will have 0, and each x value after that will enter how many days after the first poll as the value.
• Once you have your tables you are to make a graph on excel.
• Now you are to make a linear regression (or line of best fit) (don't forget to turn your diagnostic on) using both sets of data (McCain and Obama). (round to 4 decimal places)
• Now that you have a regression you are to use these to predict who will win that state on November 4th. This can be done by inputting November 4th's value in for x.
• You are to now write: a conclusion of your findings, a statement as to the accuracy of your findings (use the diagnostic feature of your TI), the impact this will have on the election and finally if you feel that the regression was a good tool to use for making a prediction.

pblelection2008math

Mathematics is at the core of our lives.

We use it constantly. Sometimes we are aware we are using it, and sometimes we are not.

• ESSENTIAL QUESTION: To apply the essential question to math, we look for ways to measure how an individual affects society, and for ways to measure how society also affects the individual. Math allows us to quantify these changes.

A GOOD MATHEMATICIAN CAN USE DATE TO MAKE PREDICTIONS, CREATE EQUATIONS THROUGH REGRESSIONS, ANALYZE THIS DATE AND MAKE STRONG CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN HAVE AN AFFECT ON SOCIETY.

• How do we measure the ELECTION which is a form of societal change?
• How do the POLLS allow us to measure societal beliefs?
• How do the POLLS represent a form of PREDICTION?
• How does PREDICTION allow us to measure societal trends and beliefs?
• How does Math allow us to connect Measurement to Science and Politics?
• GOAL: This assignment will enable you to become good mathematicians as you realize math's place, not only in this election, but in society.

• POLLS and PREDICTIONS: SIMPLE MATH...and SCIENCE...and POLITICS
• We are going to look at the polls and how they have changed over time to not only make predictions as to which candidate will win in states that have a key baring to the outcome of the election and are tied with our environmental issues.
• We are also going to do the job of the mathematicians and statisticians by using these findings to give direction to the candidates and how they should move forward to achieve their goal of election.